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Shotgun Quiz: Win a Rocky BroadHead Archery Jacket

July 22, 2010

Shotgun Quiz: Win a Rocky BroadHead Archery Jacket

By: John Davis

For the Shotgun Discipline, the competitors will face a course that is intended to be a duck hunt somewhere in the Dakotas. Blind, decoys, a little pothole; all you’re missing is a retriever and real birds.

The birds come out in pairs, just like you would expect when hunting. Screamers coming in low, high flyers, flaring, incomers, and jumping teal are all represented on the course of fire. Point system is based on degree of difficulty of the shot.

The incoming bird is a gimme and worth 2 points. It’s paired with a tough jumping teal that’s worth 10 points. The screamers are from left-to-right and right-to left and are worth 4 points each. The flaring bird is worth 6 and is paired with a right-to-left screamer. The high flyer is worth 8 and is paired with a left-to-right screamer.

The order is the pair of right-to-left screamers, the pair of left-to right screamers, the right-to-left screamer and flaring bird, the left-to-right screamer and high flyer, and finally the incomer and jumping teal. You will shoot one rotation from the right station and then one from the left station, for a total of twenty shots. You do not have to break the first bird to move to the second bird out and you have only two shells for each pair out.

TOC scoring is one point for winning an individual discipline, two points for second place, and so on until sixteen points for last place. A double-digit score in any one discipline makes winning the overall crown very difficult.

Scenario: You are leading off the shotgun discipline, the first event overall. It is not your strongest event and you’re just hoping to survive. During practice you smashed the screamers, the flaring and incoming birds. You never touched the high flyer or the teal.

Question: Give us your game plan, pair-by-pair, including “in case of a miss”. Next week, Brian Cramer (three-time Finalist) will review everyone’s’ strategy and name the winner.

Swag: Rocky BroadHead Archery Jacket

July 22, 2010 | Permalink

Comments (8)

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from Brian Cramer wrote 3 years 34 weeks ago

mattmo - John tends to change this event up every year so what might work this year might only get you half way there next year. But to be honest with you both answers were good and according to your story ... your strategy sounds like it is the road you would have taken based on your history at the regionals. Both stratagies are good and the competitor has to know his/her weakness when going into an event. That is why we all play the game. Good luck to all this years TOC competitors and for everyone else (like me) ... let's kick their rear next year at a Regional and we can go play in the Canyon.

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from mattmo wrote 3 years 34 weeks ago

Thanks Brian. So in your honest opinion. What really is the best strategy? I'd like to know in case I make it to Dogwood next year. Thanks.

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from Brian Cramer wrote 3 years 34 weeks ago

mattmo - great answer and a good strategy. I'm sorry you didn't get your answer in earlier. On the other hand others may want to still post their thoughts on the subject because it does open things up for debate and discussion. And you never know but the strategies presented here may actually help the TOC competitor’s when they get to the Canyon in September.

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from mattmo wrote 3 years 34 weeks ago

I didn't even realize Brian had posted until I had submitted. Congratulations FlyFox.

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from mattmo wrote 3 years 34 weeks ago

On paper, the logical choice is to stay with your strengths and shoot the first 3 pairs in the order they come and then try to make up for a misses by attempting 2 shots on the 'high point' birds on pairs 4 & 5. While this seems like a good strategy, I learned a very valuable lesson @ the TOC regionals in the archery this year. I had started off with the 'safe' strategy that I would go for the big targets and would go for the 10 point (green dots) only if I fell behind. Well that's exactly what happened. A couple early 'misses' made me feel like I had to make up for lost points. So the final 2 shots, I went for the 'green'. Even though they were makeable, the pressure was too great and I missed both. Instead of adding 20 points, I added 0.
So back to the shotgun: The only strategy that makes sense to me is go for guarantees on each shot. The only pair that I would even think about doubling up is the very last one (giving up 2 and going for 10). And that's only if I've totally missed most of my previous shots. If I've done at least average on the first 4 pairs, I'm going with guaranteed points. I have to remember that this isn't my best event, and other people will no doubt struggle too. (I have to minimize my losses).

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from Brian Cramer wrote 3 years 34 weeks ago

Well after reviewing the one and only answer for the Shotgun Quiz along with a request for John's email address ... I have determined the winner. The winner is (drum roll please) ... Flyfish_fox. Let me just say even though Fly's answer was the only one given, it was very well thought out. Others of you may have had a different strategy but ... you didn't present it here on this TOC forum and thus you can't win the Swag. A sid note to Flyfish and all TOC enthusiast be sure and support the TOC Sponsors. Flyfish please send your contact information and address to John at hookjawed@sbcglobal.net.

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from bassadams5 wrote 3 years 35 weeks ago

John, this is Scott Adams. I competed in Leeds. I have a question for you. Could you provide me your email address or drop me a quick line at bassadams5@yahoo.com. Thanks

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from Flyfish_fox wrote 3 years 35 weeks ago

Of course the best strategy is to just shoot all the birds for perfect score of 50. If you try to maximize your probabilities of success, then the fun starts.
First pair: the pair of “right-to-left screamers”, 4 points each, (high probability of success) shoot both birds for total of 8.
Second pair: the pair of “left-to right screamers”, 4 points each, (high success probability) shoot both birds for total of 8, running total 16.
Third pair: the “right-to-left screamer” and “flaring bird”, 4 points and 6 points, (high success probability on both) shoot both birds for at total of 10, running total of 26.
Fourth pair: the “left-to-right screamer” and “high flyer”, (high success probability) and (low success probability), 4 points and 8 points. Now the strategy starts, do you pass on the first bird and double up on the 8 point (low probability shot).
If you take the first bird (high probability of success) and miss the second (low probability of success) your probable running score is 30, which is what you should do if you haven’t missed yet.
If have missed, then you need to catch up and focus on the high value “high flyer”, you skip the first bird to double up on the second (and if you get it you’ll have a running total of 34, if you miss the high flyer and you are at 26.
Fifth and last pair: the “incomer” (high probability of success) and jumping teal (low probability of success). The “jumping teal” is worth 5 times the “incomer”.
Even if you haven’t missed yet, you skip the first and focus on the second bird. If you take it you will have 8 more than if you get only the first. That is equal to two misses on the first 3 pairs.
If you get it you have a running total of 40 or 44, miss and you are at 26 or 30, tough break.

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from mattmo wrote 3 years 34 weeks ago

On paper, the logical choice is to stay with your strengths and shoot the first 3 pairs in the order they come and then try to make up for a misses by attempting 2 shots on the 'high point' birds on pairs 4 & 5. While this seems like a good strategy, I learned a very valuable lesson @ the TOC regionals in the archery this year. I had started off with the 'safe' strategy that I would go for the big targets and would go for the 10 point (green dots) only if I fell behind. Well that's exactly what happened. A couple early 'misses' made me feel like I had to make up for lost points. So the final 2 shots, I went for the 'green'. Even though they were makeable, the pressure was too great and I missed both. Instead of adding 20 points, I added 0.
So back to the shotgun: The only strategy that makes sense to me is go for guarantees on each shot. The only pair that I would even think about doubling up is the very last one (giving up 2 and going for 10). And that's only if I've totally missed most of my previous shots. If I've done at least average on the first 4 pairs, I'm going with guaranteed points. I have to remember that this isn't my best event, and other people will no doubt struggle too. (I have to minimize my losses).

+1 Good Comment? | | Report
from Flyfish_fox wrote 3 years 35 weeks ago

Of course the best strategy is to just shoot all the birds for perfect score of 50. If you try to maximize your probabilities of success, then the fun starts.
First pair: the pair of “right-to-left screamers”, 4 points each, (high probability of success) shoot both birds for total of 8.
Second pair: the pair of “left-to right screamers”, 4 points each, (high success probability) shoot both birds for total of 8, running total 16.
Third pair: the “right-to-left screamer” and “flaring bird”, 4 points and 6 points, (high success probability on both) shoot both birds for at total of 10, running total of 26.
Fourth pair: the “left-to-right screamer” and “high flyer”, (high success probability) and (low success probability), 4 points and 8 points. Now the strategy starts, do you pass on the first bird and double up on the 8 point (low probability shot).
If you take the first bird (high probability of success) and miss the second (low probability of success) your probable running score is 30, which is what you should do if you haven’t missed yet.
If have missed, then you need to catch up and focus on the high value “high flyer”, you skip the first bird to double up on the second (and if you get it you’ll have a running total of 34, if you miss the high flyer and you are at 26.
Fifth and last pair: the “incomer” (high probability of success) and jumping teal (low probability of success). The “jumping teal” is worth 5 times the “incomer”.
Even if you haven’t missed yet, you skip the first and focus on the second bird. If you take it you will have 8 more than if you get only the first. That is equal to two misses on the first 3 pairs.
If you get it you have a running total of 40 or 44, miss and you are at 26 or 30, tough break.

0 Good Comment? | | Report
from bassadams5 wrote 3 years 35 weeks ago

John, this is Scott Adams. I competed in Leeds. I have a question for you. Could you provide me your email address or drop me a quick line at bassadams5@yahoo.com. Thanks

0 Good Comment? | | Report
from Brian Cramer wrote 3 years 34 weeks ago

Well after reviewing the one and only answer for the Shotgun Quiz along with a request for John's email address ... I have determined the winner. The winner is (drum roll please) ... Flyfish_fox. Let me just say even though Fly's answer was the only one given, it was very well thought out. Others of you may have had a different strategy but ... you didn't present it here on this TOC forum and thus you can't win the Swag. A sid note to Flyfish and all TOC enthusiast be sure and support the TOC Sponsors. Flyfish please send your contact information and address to John at hookjawed@sbcglobal.net.

0 Good Comment? | | Report
from mattmo wrote 3 years 34 weeks ago

I didn't even realize Brian had posted until I had submitted. Congratulations FlyFox.

0 Good Comment? | | Report
from Brian Cramer wrote 3 years 34 weeks ago

mattmo - great answer and a good strategy. I'm sorry you didn't get your answer in earlier. On the other hand others may want to still post their thoughts on the subject because it does open things up for debate and discussion. And you never know but the strategies presented here may actually help the TOC competitor’s when they get to the Canyon in September.

0 Good Comment? | | Report
from mattmo wrote 3 years 34 weeks ago

Thanks Brian. So in your honest opinion. What really is the best strategy? I'd like to know in case I make it to Dogwood next year. Thanks.

0 Good Comment? | | Report
from Brian Cramer wrote 3 years 34 weeks ago

mattmo - John tends to change this event up every year so what might work this year might only get you half way there next year. But to be honest with you both answers were good and according to your story ... your strategy sounds like it is the road you would have taken based on your history at the regionals. Both stratagies are good and the competitor has to know his/her weakness when going into an event. That is why we all play the game. Good luck to all this years TOC competitors and for everyone else (like me) ... let's kick their rear next year at a Regional and we can go play in the Canyon.

0 Good Comment? | | Report

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