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Beating the Odds

April 14, 2009

Beating the Odds

My career choice (“professional redneck,” according to my beautiful bride, JaNan) has led me to a life of running in a circle of pretty outdoorsy folks. Most of my free time includes: (A) Hunting something, (B) Catching something, or (C) “Hey y’all, watch this” moments involving motorized vehicles equipped with winches. (Combine these hobbies, and you are qualified for the position of Total Outdoorsman Challenge Competitions Manager. That is, if you’re in the market for a career change with the financial crisis and all.)

Every good craftsman utilizes the tools available to them, and these guys are definitely tools, which I use for new competition ideas. By that I mean they mess up my wife’s furniture while critiquing last year’s show as I take notes of their astute analysis between tending to the grill and the den’s refrigerator. Usually several disastrous schemes fly—sometimes followed by a few decent innovations. But the one thing I can count on is that every single one will say, and I quote, “Come on John, I can [choose any discipline] better than that guy did.”

Yeah, good luck with that, Sparky.

Let’s roll through the odds—just the odds, not factors like talent, nerve, and intelligence. Here are the challenges you face to just make the TOC Championships. This year, the 48 Qualifiers will be held for two days apiece. That’s 98 separate days to qualify. Say on the low end that 20 competitors show up each day. That’s just shy of 2,000 running through the course.

Factor in that there are only 200 combined slots in the four Regionals, you have to finish in the top 10 percent of the Qualifiers just to advance. To say it another way, you have to better than nine out of every 10 competitors who are confident enough in their skills to try and qualify. More than just a little talent is required before you make a reservation at the Bass Mahal for September.

If you survive through the crowds to separate yourself into a more elite status, things get raelly tough. Add another skill set (three disciplines in Qualifiers, four in Regionals) and move on to compete with 49 others who were also in the 90th percentile for one of three bids to the National finals. That’s a whopping 6 percent of 50 competitors who were good enough to better 90 percent of 2,000 competitors.

Feeling good about beating those odds yet?

April 14, 2009 in | Permalink

Comments (14)

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from medlakesscott wrote 30 weeks 6 days ago

Great post Dek, I agree with your analysis, but like you said we all think we're better than the next guy. That's why I'm going to the qualifier.

Question; Have you ever tried out and if so, what is the archery segment like? How many arrows do I need to bring? Any other equipment tips for game day?

0 Good Comment? | | Report
from John Davis wrote 30 weeks 6 days ago

MLS,
Never tried out. I know my talent limitations.

In the Quals you will use your own bow on a pretty simple course. Distance will vary according to venue. Difficulity will vary according to event staff's imagination.

Next week's blogs will have some tips on playing the game, but the best advice I can give you is to act like you're hanging out with some buddies. Perform like you do on your own range, lake, etc. and you will do fine. Get tight and bad things happen.

Good luck and I hope to see you in June.

John

0 Good Comment? | | Report
from Tom Cooprider wrote 30 weeks 4 days ago

Hey John,
Can you believe it's time again? It's a good thing that you are not able to qualify, It would be hard to beat you. I guess i will see you in Texas.

Coop

0 Good Comment? | | Report
from Brian Cramer wrote 30 weeks 4 days ago

Medlakesscott- To answer your questions:

What is the archery segment like? How many arrows do I need to bring? Any other equipment tips for game day?

Archery - Historically 3 3-D targets are used ... six arrows with practice/field tips.

Good luck!

0 Good Comment? | | Report
from John Davis wrote 30 weeks 3 days ago

Hey Coop,
Good to see ya on here. Quals this weekend, Regionals in a month, doesn't get any better than this. 50 guys will be a battle, good luck buddy. I know that you will be prepared.
John

0 Good Comment? | | Report
from Patrick N wrote 30 weeks 2 days ago

John,

Had a great time at last years competition. Brian, hope to see you in Grapevine this year. We will find out after this weekend.

Patrick

0 Good Comment? | | Report
from Cory Yarmuth wrote 30 weeks 1 day ago

Can't wait for the regionals! Gunning for that top spot to compete with you guys again! I had a blast and I am sure John just can't wait to put up with my questions. Just kidding John. I have the game now, just need to bring my "A" game.

0 Good Comment? | | Report
from TexasER wrote 30 weeks 1 day ago

Cooprider:

If you need a place to stay in Texas I live 10 minutes from BassPro in Grapevine. You are always welcome here.
You can get my number or email from Pete Mosby.
Eric Hansen

0 Good Comment? | | Report
from TexasER wrote 30 weeks 4 hours ago

John: I participated in the qualifier and Saturday, and did good, but I can do better. Can I go back on Sunday?

0 Good Comment? | | Report
from ematee wrote 30 weeks 3 hours ago

Texas ER -
You can return to register a score for Sunday as well.

0 Good Comment? | | Report
from TexasHuntinGirl wrote 29 weeks 5 days ago

anyone have an idea what type of score its going to take to get to the regionals this year. This is my first time to compete in the qualifier.

0 Good Comment? | | Report
from TexasER wrote 29 weeks 5 days ago

If you are the girl that shot a 50 on the archery range I wouldn't loose too much sleep over it. I bet you made it with no problem.

0 Good Comment? | | Report
from jab8357 wrote 29 weeks 4 days ago

I just wanted to say that the toc is not about one area ( archery,air rifle,baitcasting). Keep in concideration if you do great in two and poorly in one it could ruin your chances to qualify. I seen a couple of 50 and 49 in the archery but bait casting was horrific. I have competed before and trust me all 3 have to be top notch for the reginals and championship. I would recomend as much practice as possible and good luck to everybody. I hope to see and meet everyone at the reginals.

0 Good Comment? | | Report
from jab8357 wrote 29 weeks 4 days ago

Last year at the championship there where 7 different areas you compete in. I was a spectator last year at the championship watching my father compete. What I noticed was that not one competor placed 1st place more than once. These competors are great at all areas of outdoors so keep in mind the competion is tough the pressure is deep and the camaraderie and memories are pricless. Practice well compete hard and good luck to all!

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from jab8357 wrote 29 weeks 4 days ago

Last year at the championship there where 7 different areas you compete in. I was a spectator last year at the championship watching my father compete. What I noticed was that not one competor placed 1st place more than once. These competors are great at all areas of outdoors so keep in mind the competion is tough the pressure is deep and the camaraderie and memories are pricless. Practice well compete hard and good luck to all!

+1 Good Comment? | | Report
from medlakesscott wrote 30 weeks 6 days ago

Great post Dek, I agree with your analysis, but like you said we all think we're better than the next guy. That's why I'm going to the qualifier.

Question; Have you ever tried out and if so, what is the archery segment like? How many arrows do I need to bring? Any other equipment tips for game day?

0 Good Comment? | | Report
from John Davis wrote 30 weeks 6 days ago

MLS,
Never tried out. I know my talent limitations.

In the Quals you will use your own bow on a pretty simple course. Distance will vary according to venue. Difficulity will vary according to event staff's imagination.

Next week's blogs will have some tips on playing the game, but the best advice I can give you is to act like you're hanging out with some buddies. Perform like you do on your own range, lake, etc. and you will do fine. Get tight and bad things happen.

Good luck and I hope to see you in June.

John

0 Good Comment? | | Report
from Tom Cooprider wrote 30 weeks 4 days ago

Hey John,
Can you believe it's time again? It's a good thing that you are not able to qualify, It would be hard to beat you. I guess i will see you in Texas.

Coop

0 Good Comment? | | Report
from Brian Cramer wrote 30 weeks 4 days ago

Medlakesscott- To answer your questions:

What is the archery segment like? How many arrows do I need to bring? Any other equipment tips for game day?

Archery - Historically 3 3-D targets are used ... six arrows with practice/field tips.

Good luck!

0 Good Comment? | | Report
from John Davis wrote 30 weeks 3 days ago

Hey Coop,
Good to see ya on here. Quals this weekend, Regionals in a month, doesn't get any better than this. 50 guys will be a battle, good luck buddy. I know that you will be prepared.
John

0 Good Comment? | | Report
from Patrick N wrote 30 weeks 2 days ago

John,

Had a great time at last years competition. Brian, hope to see you in Grapevine this year. We will find out after this weekend.

Patrick

0 Good Comment? | | Report
from Cory Yarmuth wrote 30 weeks 1 day ago

Can't wait for the regionals! Gunning for that top spot to compete with you guys again! I had a blast and I am sure John just can't wait to put up with my questions. Just kidding John. I have the game now, just need to bring my "A" game.

0 Good Comment? | | Report
from TexasER wrote 30 weeks 1 day ago

Cooprider:

If you need a place to stay in Texas I live 10 minutes from BassPro in Grapevine. You are always welcome here.
You can get my number or email from Pete Mosby.
Eric Hansen

0 Good Comment? | | Report
from TexasER wrote 30 weeks 4 hours ago

John: I participated in the qualifier and Saturday, and did good, but I can do better. Can I go back on Sunday?

0 Good Comment? | | Report
from ematee wrote 30 weeks 3 hours ago

Texas ER -
You can return to register a score for Sunday as well.

0 Good Comment? | | Report
from TexasHuntinGirl wrote 29 weeks 5 days ago

anyone have an idea what type of score its going to take to get to the regionals this year. This is my first time to compete in the qualifier.

0 Good Comment? | | Report
from TexasER wrote 29 weeks 5 days ago

If you are the girl that shot a 50 on the archery range I wouldn't loose too much sleep over it. I bet you made it with no problem.

0 Good Comment? | | Report
from jab8357 wrote 29 weeks 4 days ago

I just wanted to say that the toc is not about one area ( archery,air rifle,baitcasting). Keep in concideration if you do great in two and poorly in one it could ruin your chances to qualify. I seen a couple of 50 and 49 in the archery but bait casting was horrific. I have competed before and trust me all 3 have to be top notch for the reginals and championship. I would recomend as much practice as possible and good luck to everybody. I hope to see and meet everyone at the reginals.

0 Good Comment? | | Report

Post a Comment

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